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Abstract In a collisionless shock the energy of the directed flow is converted to heating and acceleration of charged particles, and to magnetic compression. In low-Mach number shocks the downstream ion distribution is made of directly transmitted ions. In higher-Mach number shocks ion reflection is important. With the increase of the Mach number, rippling develops, which is expected to affect ion dynamics. Using ion tracing in a model shock front, downstream distributions of ions are analyzed and compared for a planar stationary shock with an overshoot and a similar shock with ripples propagating along the shock front. It is shown that rippling results in the distributions, which are substantially broader and more diffuse in the phase space. Gyrotropization is sped up. Rippling is able to generate backstreaming ions, which are absent in the planar stationary case. 

Abstract Using ion tracing in a model shock front we study heating of thermal (Maxwellian) and superthermal (Vasyliunas–Siscoe) populations of protons, singly charged helium, and alpha particles. It is found that heating of thermal and superthermal populations is different, mainly because of substantially higher ion reflection in the superthermal populations. Accordingly, the temperature increase of initially superthermal populations is substantially higher than that of the thermal ions. Heating per mass decreases with the increase of the mass-to-charge ratio because of the reduced effect of the cross-shock potential and, accordingly, weaker ion reflection. The findings are supported by two-dimensional hybrid simulations. 

A collisionless shock is a self-organized structure where fields and particle distributions are mutually adjusted to ensure a stable mass, momentum and energy transfer from the upstream to the downstream region. This adjustment may involve rippling, reformation or whatever else is needed to maintain the shock. The fields inside the shock front are produced due to the motion of charged particles, which is in turn governed by the fields. The overshoot arises due to the deceleration of the ion flow by the increasing magnetic field, so that the drop of the dynamic pressure should be compensated by the increase of the magnetic pressure. The role of the overshoot is to regulate ion reflection, thus properly adjusting the downstream ion temperature and kinetic pressure and also speeding up the collisionless relaxation and reducing the anisotropy of the eventually gyrotropized distributions. 

Abstract Collisionless shocks channel the energy of the directed plasma flow into the heating of the plasma species and magnetic field enhancement. The kinetic processes at the shock transition cause the ion distributions just behind the shock to be nongyrotropic. Gyrotropization and subsequent isotropization occur at different spatial scales. Accordingly, for a given upstream plasma and magnetic field state, there would be different downstream states corresponding to the anisotropic and isotropic regions. Thus, at least two sets of Rankine–Hugoniot relations are needed, in general, to describe the connection of the downstream measurable parameters to the upstream ones. We establish the relation between the two sets. 

The arrival time prediction of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is an area of active research. Many methods with varying levels of complexity have been developed to predict CME arrival. However, the mean absolute error (MAE) of predictions remains above 12 hr, even with the increasing complexity of methods. In this work we develop a new method for CME arrival time prediction that uses magnetohydrodynamic simulations involving data-constrained flux-rope-based CMEs, which are introduced in a data-driven solar wind background. We found that for six CMEs studied in this work the MAE in arrival time was ∼8 hr. We further improved our arrival time predictions by using ensemble modeling and comparing the ensemble solutions with STEREO-A and STEREO-B heliospheric imager data. This was done by using our simulations to create synthetic J-maps. A machine-learning (ML) method called the lasso regression was used for this comparison. Using this approach, we could reduce the MAE to ∼4 hr. Another ML method based on the neural networks (NNs) made it possible to reduce the MAE to ∼5 hr for the cases when HI data from both STEREO-A and STEREO-B were available. NNs are capable of providing similar MAE when only the STEREO-A data are used. Our methods also resulted in very encouraging values of standard deviation (precision) of arrival time. The methods discussed in this paper demonstrate significant improvements in the CME arrival time predictions. Our work highlights the importance of using ML techniques in combination with data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic modeling to improve space weather predictions.

 

Turbulence is ubiquitous in space plasmas. It is one of the most important subjects in heliospheric physics, as it plays a fundamental role in the solar wind—local interstellar medium interaction and in controlling energetic particle transport and acceleration processes. Understanding the properties of turbulence in various regions of the heliosphere with vastly different conditions can lead to answers to many unsolved questions opened up by observations of the magnetic field, plasma, pickup ions, energetic particles, radio and UV emissions, and so on. Several space missions have helped us gain preliminary knowledge on turbulence in the outer heliosphere and the very local interstellar medium. Among the past few missions, the Voyagers have paved the way for such investigations. This paper summarizes the open challenges and voices our support for the development of future missions dedicated to the study of turbulence throughout the heliosphere and beyond. 

Abstract Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a promising tool for prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and use it to simulate the 2012 July 12 16:48 CME in the inner heliosphere. We constrain the initial parameters of this CME using the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the reconnected flux in post-eruption arcades. We correctly reproduce all the magnetic field components of the CME at Earth, with an arrival time error of approximately 1 hr. We further estimate the average subjective uncertainties in the GCS fittings by comparing the GCS parameters of 56 CMEs reported in multiple studies and catalogs. We determined that the GCS estimates of the CME latitude, longitude, tilt, and speed have average uncertainties of 5.°74, 11.°23, 24.°71, and 11.4%, respectively. Using these, we have created 77 ensemble members for the 2012 July 12 CME. We found that 55% of our ensemble members correctly reproduce the sign of the magnetic field components at Earth. We also determined that the uncertainties in GCS fitting can widen the CME arrival time prediction window to about 12 hr for the 2012 July 12 CME. On investigating the forecast accuracy introduced by the uncertainties in individual GCS parameters, we conclude that the half-angle and aspect ratio have little impact on the predicted magnetic field of the 2012 July 12 CME, whereas the uncertainties in longitude and tilt can introduce relatively large spread in the magnetic field predicted at Earth. 

Abstract Nonthermal, pickup ions (PUIs) represent an energetic component of the solar wind (SW). While a number of theoretical models have been proposed to describe the PUI flow, of major importance are in situ measurements providing us with the vital source of model validation. The Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) instrument on board the Ulysses spacecraft was specifically designed for this purpose. Zhang et al. proposed a new, accurate method for the derivation of ion velocity distribution function in the SW frame on the basis of count rates collected by SWICS. We calculate the moments of these distribution functions for protons (H + ) and He + ions along the Ulysses trajectory for a period of 2 months including the Halloween 2003 solar storm. This gives us the time distributions of PUI density and temperature. We compare these with the results obtained earlier for the same interval of time, in which the ion spectra are converted to the SW frame using the narrow-beam approximation. Substantial differences are identified, which are of importance for the interpretation of PUI distributions in the 3D, time-dependent heliosphere. We also choose one of the shocks crossed by Ulysses during this time interval and analyze the distribution functions and PUI bulk properties in front of and behind it. The results are compared with the test-particle calculations and diffusive shock acceleration theory. 

Collisionless shocks efficiently convert the energy of the directed ion flow into their thermal energy. Ion distributions change drastically at the magnetized shock crossing. Even in the absence of collisions, ion dynamics within the shock front is non-integrable and gyrophase dependent. The downstream distributions just behind the shock are not gyrotropic but become so quickly due to the kinematic gyrophase mixing even in laminar shocks. During the gyrotropization all information about gyrophases is lost. Here we develop a mapping of upstream and downstream gyrotropic distributions in terms of scattering probabilities at the shock front. An analytical expression for the probability is derived for directly transmitted ions in the narrow shock approximation. The dependence of the probability on the magnetic compression and the cross-shock potential is demonstrated. 

Abstract The solar wind (SW) and local interstellar medium (LISM) are turbulent media. Their interaction is governed by complex physical processes and creates heliospheric regions with significantly different properties in terms of particle populations, bulk flow and turbulence. Our knowledge of the solar wind turbulence nature and dynamics mostly relies on near-Earth and near-Sun observations, and has been increasingly improving in recent years due to the availability of a wealth of space missions, including multi-spacecraft missions. In contrast, the properties of turbulence in the outer heliosphere are still not completely understood. In situ observations by Voyager and New Horizons , and remote neutral atom measurements by IBEX strongly suggest that turbulence is one of the critical processes acting at the heliospheric interface. It is intimately connected to charge exchange processes responsible for the production of suprathermal ions and energetic neutral atoms. This paper reviews the observational evidence of turbulence in the distant SW and in the LISM, advances in modeling efforts, and open challenges.